Reuters IFR: Kroll ascends to No. 3 in CMBS ratings business
NEW YORK, July 19 (IFR) - Just one year after rating its first
commercial mortgage-backed securities deal, newcomer Kroll Bond Ratings
has grabbed the No. 3 market-share spot in year-to-date CMBS ratings,
eclipsing some of its more experienced competitors, including Big 3
agency Standard & Poor's, according to IFR Markets deal data.
The rating agency, started by storied corporate-investigations
pioneer Jules Kroll only two years ago, rated about $10.6 billion worth
of CMBS year-to-date via 11 offerings, including private-label deals
issued by bank lenders as well as transactions backed by loans on
multifamily properties underwritten by Freddie Mac, according to IFR
Markets.
This places the newcomer at the No. 3 market-share ranking
following Fitch, which rated about $17.5 billion, and Moody's, which
rated the largest amount of CMBS so far this year -- nearly $18 billion.
Kroll also narrowly beat out two other more-tenured competitors
who have been rating CMBS for years: Toronto-based DBRS, which captured
the No. 4 spot for year-to-date market share, and Morningstar, which
came in No. 5, according to the IFR Markets deal database.
Kroll's ascendance was no doubt helped by the fact that Standard
& Poor's, once a leader in CMBS ratings, found itself all but locked
out of the market to rate CMBS offerings after a slip-up one year ago
on a $1.5 billion deal cost it much of its market share.
The episode, which involved discrepancies that S&P found in
its ratings for a July 2011 deal, led to bonds being pulled from the
market post-sale, and eroded S&P's credibility. The debacle also
took S&P's share of the CMBS ratings market along with it, allowing
relative upstarts like Kroll to steal away part of the sector's
business. S&P has recently overhauled its ratings criteria in an
attempt to regain a foothold in the market.
But Jules Kroll, who points out that his agency rated its first
CMBS transaction prior to the S&P incident -- and has now rated a
total of 19 deals -- says that it is instead a focus on deep due
diligence, insightful analysis, and very selective hiring of seasoned
professionals that has allowed his firm to quickly gain investors' trust
and attract issuers' pocketbooks.
"Given my legacy, the tone we try to set is that due diligence
counts," said Mr. Kroll, whom many credit with inventing the modern
corporate investigations industry. "The incumbent rating agencies make a
point that it's not their responsibility to do due diligence, that
they're only reviewing what's presented to them. But the tone we try to
set is that the ultimate goal is to give investors as much as we can
give them to make their own judgments."
Kroll Bond Ratings has already expanded into municipal-bond
ratings and asset-backed securities, and plans to issue its first
corporate rating in the Fall, continuing down that path with an emphasis
on grading financial institutions. However -- sticking to its strengths
-- it will not attempt to rate the debt of sovereign nations.
"Our views, our approach, our embracing of due diligence over
time with surveillance and detailed write-ups, are of people who are
trying to restore trust," Mr. Kroll told IFR.
GAINING TRACTION
It's not an accident that the agency has excelled in CMBS. After
initially spending money and time in 2009 developing non-agency
residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) ratings models, Mr. Kroll
finally realized that the sector was not returning anytime soon, and
instead turned his attention to the nascent post-crisis renaissance in
commercial mortgage bonds, another battered asset class.
He sought out some of the most seasoned and well-known analysts
in the industry to head up his new structured finance ratings business.
"We offer more than a rating; what we view as a product is the
insight into the analysis," said Kim Diamond, who joined Kroll in
December 2010 to head up the firm's structured finance business.
Diamond was a 21-year veteran of S&P who headed up the CMBS
new-issue ratings group for years and eventually headed the entire
mortgage-bond ratings unit during the tumultuous time after the crisis
hit in 2008.
Frustrated by some decisions that S&P upper management made
in the aftermath of the crisis, Diamond left the firm in 2010.
Diamond herself commanded the overwhelming respect of the CMBS
investor and issuer community, making her a perfect choice to head up
Kroll's new structured finance unit. "She was well known, seasoned, and
emerged from the crisis with an unscathed reputation," Mr. Kroll said.
Shortly thereafter, Diamond recruited another respected CMBS
colleague from S&P, Eric Thompson, to head up Kroll's
structured-finance surveillance efforts.
"We were known entities to the industry, just resident in a
different place. So there was a predictability of outcome" to what
investors were getting, Diamond said.
While many of the Kroll analysts have rating agency backgrounds,
Diamond says that the firm has made a point to also recruit
professionals from the buy-side, sell-side, bond-structuring
professions, research, and appraisal and workout backgrounds.
"Rather than taking the standard academic or didactic approach
that many agencies take -- which tends to be very disconnected from the
real world -- we brought in perspectives of those that had taken part in
different parts of the business. That makes our perspective much more
holistic at the end of the day," she said.
OVERCOMING A STIGMA
Still, it was an uphill battle to gain the trust of investors or
convince underwriters and banks to choose the upstart to rate new
issues.
"It was not written in the Bible that anybody had to put a Kroll rating on anything," said Mr. Kroll.
One stigma that was hard to overcome: Kroll used the same pay
structure as Moody's, S&P, and Fitch, the harshly criticized
"issuer-pays" model. The conflicts of interest arising from this model
-- the notion that the agencies were serving the wrong master in the
run-up to the crisis and therefore were swayed to stamp toxic securities
with Triple A ratings -- have been sharply lambasted by Congress,
investors, and pundits.
"It's become a bit of a shibboleth that that 'issuer-pay' doesn't
work," Mr. Kroll said. "Well, what's the alternative? The investors
don't want to pay."
To get his start in the bond-ratings business, Mr. Kroll acquired
an SEC-registered boutique credit rating agency in 2010, Lace
Financial, that used an investor-pays model, but soon discovered that
the pay structure was not viable.
"It quickly became clear that investors didn't want to pay," he
said. Mr. Kroll says his firm recognizes the inherent conflict that's
involved with 'issuer-pays', so there is a tendency to be more
conservative on some ratings, and "that has cost us some business."
But company executives also point out that the investor-pays
model has its own conflicts, including the fact that large, influential
asset managers have their own vested interests: for instance, they don't
like volatility or downgrades, they like access to analysts, and there
could be the perception that they're receiving more information than
smaller shops.
"The reason that the issuer-pays model got a bad name is because
it was combined with opaque criteria," said James Nadler, president and
chief operating officer at Kroll, as well as a former executive vice
president at Fitch. Pre-crisis, the rating agencies had unclear
criteria, and therefore could rate securities however they wanted,
saying that an issuer's rationale for a Triple A "generally fit" within
the methodology, Nadler said.
"When the 'issuer-pay' model is combined with transparent criteria,
and transparent analysis, there are fewer conflicts," he added.
EXPANDING THE BUSINESS
Mr. Kroll feels that the quality of his firm's analysis is what
distinguishes it from the Big 3 rating agencies, and that there is still
opportunistic room for a boutique shop in the ratings business,
especially after the pummeling that the large raters took over the last
few years in the court of public opinion.
"The level of criticism and condemnation that these folks have
taken now for several years is non-stop," he told IFR. "If I was running
one of these places, the first thing I would do is apologize. And offer
an explanation."
That may be hard to do for S&P, Moody's, and Fitch, however,
Mr. Kroll said, as they are constrained by lawyers protecting them from
litigation, regulators, and the Dept. of Justice.
But the tattered reputation of the other agencies means that Mr.
Kroll sees selective near-term opportunities in other areas where his
ratings company can prove its analytical worth. The agency hopes to
replicate the success it has found in CMBS this past year in other
sectors, and has already rated a subprime auto ABS transaction, with two
more in the queue, and is in the process of rating its first
container-lease deal.
Moreover, the bigger picture for Kroll Bond Ratings expands
beyond just grading transactions and companies: Mr. Kroll intends to
acquire an information provider/data company and combine it with the
agency over the next year.
"It is not our intent to only be a ratings business," he said.
In order to make such an acquisition, however, and for it to be
profitable, he has to make sure that there is a sturdy platform to build
on.
"I'm not doing this as a religious experience," Kroll said. "I'm
doing this to achieve an economic return, and I think the marketplace
will ultimately reward us economically if the product is viewed as
independent and of high quality."
"The minute it's not viewed as independent and high quality, we're toast."
adam.tempkin@thomsonreuters.com